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Heaven On Earth
First thoughts on Rosner’s first comments
Monday May 31, 2010
Rosner’s Domain: First comments on the Gaza flotilla disaster
Posted by SHMUEL ROSNERDetails are still sketchy as I write this post, so all is subjected to changes. However, here are a couple of things that need to be watched, and understood at this time. I will update this post as we go along.
1. Obviously, this was not the intended result of Israel’s intercepting of the convoy. Did Israel know in advance that the soldiers will be ambushed? If not, that is a problem. Maybe the problem. If they did, how did Israel prepare the forces and what was the plan for taking over the ships
Agreed.
2. With all the all-too-familiar outcry about public relations, public opinion, world opinion, Israel’s image etc, one has to remember that PR – as important as it might be – is not all in life. Definitely not all in military life. If force had to be used as to prevent the flotilla from going into Gaza – if there was no way around it – than PR becomes a secondary issue and will have to be dealt with later.
It’s not that simple. If the IDF didn’t anticipate this, and they didn’t have at least one photographer with every landing team, then that’s a failure to understand what this is about. This is cognitive warfare and the violence is for effect, not for victory. If you drop the cognitive and just focus on the military, you’ve taken your eye off the ball. PR is not secondary; it’s above all primary in this situation. This doesn’t mean you let soldiers by killed for PR, but it means that if you’re going to have to kill – as this case turned out to be – then you damn well better have your ass covered.
3. Will Netanyahu cancel his US visit and go back to Israel? I think he shouldn’t do such thing, but this will be politically risky. Rabin didn’t come back from a visit when the first Intifadah erupted (he was Defense Minister) and was criticized for it. I always thought this criticism wasn’t fair – it was Monday morning quarterbacking. But Netanyahu might face the same dilemma and the same result if he doesn’t come back – and violent demonstrations make this event the cornerstone marking the beginning of third Intifada. If he comes back and nothing happens he will also be criticized – for being hysterical.
I heard Charles Enderlin announce to the camera that Netanyahu was coming back, and that this was a full scale diplomatic crisis. Don’t know if that’s true, but given this, I’m not sure he should have been in Washington in the first place.
4. With all due respect to Turkey’s protestations, the crisis in Turkey-Israel relations isn’t new, and the interests of the two sides didn’t change because of this event. If the Turks turn this into a major crisis it is because they were looking for excuses to ignite such crisis.
They probably were and did. But that brings us to a new level of crisis. This is Turkey’s way of positioning itself at the vanguard of Muslim activism globally. If the Israelis have captured Turkish soldiers on this boat, then this should be used to counter-strike. But then, in the world of diplomacy, all the rules change.
5. Remember the Jenin Massacre? Remember reports like this one? “A British forensic expert who has gained access to the West Bank city of Jenin says evidence points to a massacre by Israeli forces”. The evidence was bogus, as we all know now. When there’s smoke screen, there’s rumor. When there’s rumor, we know nothing.
Absolutely. This is the framework in which to understand what’s happening: unscrupulous provocateurs circulate “lethal narratives” like Jenin and the media gobble it up and present it as news. The journalists who jump on these lethal narratives – the Israelis landed firing at us peaceful protesters – should be held accountable for their incompetence when the story comes out. Apparently, even Turkish CNN has admitted the soldiers were swarmed on landing.
For a good analysis of the implications for US-Israel relations see Richard Fernandez’s post Where the Old Flotilla Lay.
10 Deaths Aboard Gaza Flotilla–Is It Because Of Their Terrorist Connections?…
One of the organisers of the flotilla, which includes three vessels from Turkey, is IHH, a humanitarian aid group supported by Ankara.The Guardian —– During the boarding of the ships, the demonstrators onboard attacked the IDF Naval person…
It looks like Israel swallowed whole the claims that there would be nonviolent response to boarding and was not prepared for such circumstances — more evidence of the military losing its smarts.
Be that as it may, I do not buy the notion that Israel should have not stopped the flotilla, the outcome notwithstanding. Israel has already tied its own hands to avoid delegitimizing pressure and any further yield would result in an avalanche of attempts to completely defeat its defenses. There is a point at which they would have to lay into coffins.
Israel is continuously demonized, not matter what it does. Therefore it might as well defend itself and stop its enemies, so that at least achieves something for the cost that is being paid anyway.
Turkey should be careful:
http://www.hrw.org/en/world-report-2010/turkey
If Israel would legally consider the Free Gaza Terrorists as members of Hamas, it would have reached Turkish human rights standards ― at least in this respect. Israel is far from that.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=human-rights-chief-speaks-out-against-how-stone-throwing-kids-are-treated–2010-05-28
Apropos crisis with Turkey:
Erdogan is currently pushing very hard to get a crisis with Argentine who ironically wanted to celebrate 100 years of good relations with Turkey.
Maybe he is trying to score with the Kemalists. It is officially about a cancelled inauguration of a bust of Atatürk, due to the Armenian lobby.
[...] Landes responds to Shmuel Rosner’s comments over at the Jerusalem Post. This is the framework in which to [...]
Obama would act wisely now by backing Israel, and putting the blame for the loss of life squarely on the shoulders of those “peace activists” who attacked the IDF. He must act quickly and use a firm hand to tamp out this fire, Ankara is already working to spread the flames.
[...] http://www.theaugeanstables.com/2010/05/31/first-thoughts-on-rosners-first-comments/ [...]
Of course it is cognitive warfare. What is the matter with the IDF and the Israeli government?!!! Unless they have it covered with cameras we don’t know about. Heck even ordinary American cops have cameras on their cruisers so that there will be a clear record when they have shoot one of the jerks.
Yes, I thought it was a just a bunch of European anti Semites grandstanding, but evidently there was an admixture of Islamist provocateurs. I agree that the PR aspects can’t trump or even compromise the military side (and it sounds like the IDF can still shoot straight) but surely they should be better at preempting an asymmetrical play of this nature.
To all who comment in favor of the Jewish scum: you are crazy, inhumane Nazis.
Operation Israel is operation Swastika – time to change your flag.
to Holocaust Gaza:
how interesting that someone accusing the Israelis of being Nazis would use Nazi language. interesting mutation in “leftist” thinking? or are you on the “right’?